Premium Picks

Preseason Winner # 4 in a Row on August 14

Preseason Lock # 4 in a Row
Las Vegas (-4 1/2) over Minnesota 26-20

And here's what I told my customers:

Las Vegas didn't play Derek Carr in its opening rout of Jacksonville in the Hall of Fame game two Thursdays ago in Canton, Ohio when I backed the Raiders and it didn't matter as they ran for 159 yards on 33 carries on a rain-soaked field against a Jaguars squad that played mainly backups throughout.
No field issues to be concerned about indoors today and whether Carr and other starters on offense will play is unknown, but it makes no difference to me because Las Vegas already has a game under its belt and that's a huge advantage against the Vikings, who like the Jaguars a week ago, have a new coach in ex-Rams OC Kevin O'Connell.
With Kirk Cousins M-I-A because of COVID, journeyman Sean Mannion is rumored to get the start with Kellen Mond, who was pretty much invisible last year after being a 3rd-round pick, expected to see significant action. Again, makes no difference to me because this is an area Las Vegas has a significant edge.
The Raiders started Jarrett Stidham (8-for-15, 96 yards) against Jacksonville last week and then brought in Nick Mullens (8-for-11, 72 yards) before allowing Chase Garbers (4-for-6, 35 yards) to mop up. Stidham had a great camp and the added benefit of having Josh McDaniels as his OC for 3 years while both were with the Patriots. Mullens, meanwhile, has been around a few blocks in the NFL and his experience shows. 
McDaniels, meanwhile, is a believer in running the ball in the preseason. You saw it against the Jaguars as 5 backs shared the action with 4th-round pick Zamir White shining with 52 yards on 11 carries. Don't expect any changes today on a fast field indoors. 

Preseason Winner # 3 in a Row on August 13

Preseason Lock # 2 in a Row
 Buffalo (+1) over Indianapolis 27-23

And here's what I told my customers:

Buffalo opened at -3 1/2 but the line shifted once it was announced that Josh Allen wasn't going to play but Matt Ryan was.
What a crock of you-know-what. Like Allen, playing a couple of series at most, was going to make such a huge difference as opposed to Ryan, who needs to develop some chemistry with his new teammates.
As usual, this game is going to turn based on who is playing quarterback with the second- , third- , and fourth-stringers. 
When Ryan departs, the Colts are probably giving Nick Foles - who has gotten the majority of snaps with the the backups in camp - just limited action. So says head coach Frank Reich, who would rather take an extended look at Sam Ehlinger and Jack Coan.
With Allen sitting, the Bills are going to play a couple of journeyman, Case Keenum, who started a couple of games last season for the Browns when Baker Mayfield was hurt, and the well-traveled Matt Barkley.
The Bills have won and covered 7 straight preseason games. Not exactly a streak of Ravens' proportions (21 row SU; 18-2-1 ATS), but not bad, either.

Easy Preseason Winner # 2 in a Row on August 11

Preseason Lock # 2 in a Row
Baltimore (-3') over Tennessee 23-10

And here's what I told my customers:

The names change but the results don't. What I'm talking about is Baltimore's preseason domination as the Ravens are 40-12 SU in the summer under John Harbaugh with a record-setting 20 straight wins (17-2-1 ATS) since 2015. Over the course of that winning streak they've outscored their opponents 477-219 and registered an average cover of 11.7 points.
It's Week One. QB Lamar Jackson, TE Mark Andrews, CB Marlon Humphrey, S Marcus Williams, DE Justin Houston, RBs J.K. Dobbins and Gus Edwards are among a host of starters that will be most likely watching this game just like us. And after all the devastating injuries Baltimore sustained last year, can you blame Harbaugh and his staff for being cautious?
Tyler Huntley, who played a lot last year when Jackson was hurt, is expected to be QB1 with 8-year journeyman Brett Hundley next up. Undrafted rookie Anthony Brown out of Oregon could get some late snaps, too. 
Expect the Ravens to run the ball as usual because that's what they do best anyway. Veterans Mike Davis, Corey Clement and Justice Hill are all expected to be available, but the guy who has really shined in camp is 6th-round pick Tyler Badie out of Mizzou.
Tennessee is probably giving most of the 1st-half snaps to Logan Woodside, who will then yield to rookie 1st-rounder Malik Willis. But the Titans' offensive line has been a mess in camp and their receiving corps is in disarray. Remember, they traded A.J. Brown and released Julio Jones. Ex-Ram Robert Woods is recovering from an injury and their 1st-rounder, Treylon Burks, hasn't acclimated himself as quickly as they wanted.

Easy NFL Winner to Kickoff the Preseason!

Hall of Fame Release
Las Vegas (-2') over Jacksonville 27-11

And here's what I told my customers:

A meaningless preseason game. One of dozens over the next few weeks. But someone is going to cover and I say it's Las Vegas.
In these early, first-week games - especially in this case where you've got each team with a new coach playing the 1st of 4 games (when everyone else plays just 3) - the key is who has the better QB rotation.
Derek Carr? Not likely. Expect a heavy dose of Jarrett Stidham and Nick Mullens with perhaps a cameo from Chase Garbers for the Raiders tonight. Stidham has gotten the majority of the 2nd-team reps in camp and has looked good, despite missing last season because of back surgery. But, he's also got familiarity with new coach Josh McDaniels' offense after spending 3 years with the Patriots where JM was OC.
FYI - Mullens, who has bounced around the league the past few seasons, has also played well in camp.
For the Jags and new coach Doug Pederson, the scoreboard doesn't really matter; it's all about rebuilding after the Urban Meyer fiasco. No Trevor Lawrence or C.J. Beathard tonight so it's Jake Lutton and Kyle Sloter at quarterback. The former made 3 starts with the team back in 2020, but failed to make the cut last year and spent the season with Seattle. The latter has some great preseason numbers (11 TDs, 1 INT), but just joined the team a little over a week ago for depth purposes. 
Sharps and smart money moved this line from pick to -2 1/2 and there's a reason.  

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Chuck O'Brien's Rating System

I'm going to keep this very simple; I don't want you coming to the site with a slide rule and calculator trying to figure out how to play my picks - I just want you to get down on them ASAP.


My picks will be rated on a 10 dime to 100 dime scale so you can effectively understand my money management system.


The 10-to-100 scale is simply a weighted scale to let you know where a 40 dime release, for example, rates in the big picture. So, for example, an 80 dime play is twice as strong as a 40 dime play. And a 60 dime play is three times stronger than a 20 dime play, etc.


Now how much you personally wager on these selections is a decision you should be making based on how big your bankroll is for a given time period (day, week, month or season). You need to determine what percentage of your bankroll you're willing to risk and then look at how I've rated my pick on the 10 dime to 100 dime scale to realize what portion of that bankroll you should be putting in play.


Please - and this I beg of you guys - please follow my ratings; follow my bankroll strategies. That will be the difference between winning and losing. If you don't use foresight when placing your wagers, you could foolishly put yourself in a deep hole from which their is no escape no matter how much I win for you.


Who Is Chuck O'Brien?

I’m Boston born and bred, a product of a working class Irish family consisting of five sons who lived and breathed sports 24/7, 365 days a year.   

I grew up watching Carlton Fisk, Jim Rice and Freddy Lynn at Fenway and Bird, McHale and DJ at the Garden. But by high school my love of sports turned from collecting football and baseball cards to passing out parlay cards to my friends (and a few teachers).   

I don’t know if many of you can understand this, but growing up where I did and as I did, gambling on sports was a way of life. I can remember when I was six-years-old my Dad and uncles discussing betting NFL games at Christmas dinner. I knew what a pointspread was and what it meant to cover the number long before I got to junior high. And trust me, “Uncle Billy” wasn’t one of my Mom or Dad’s brothers; he was my pop’s bookie for probably 15 years until he passed away.   

I’m not going to lie to you, college wasn’t for me. After high school I went the trade school route and became a licensed HVAC technician. You want to talk about finding gamblers at every turn. My God, all the guys talked about was sports and betting and my opinion was solicited day after day.   

So how did I turn into a professional handicapper? Well, you try to make it on $37,000 a year with a wife, two kids and a mortgage in Boston.

I was betting – and winning – to supplement my income when it dawned on me that I could make money selling my selections to all the guys who had been hitting me up for all these years for free. I started small, charging $25 a week to about 10 guys. Those 10 turned into 150 within two years. And two years after that I was out of the HVAC biz and a full-time handicapper. 

Fast forward to 2007. I had met Al DeMarco while he was appearing weekly as an analyst on SNY Daily News Live in New York. He told me about this website and how he wanted to bring top-notch handicappers at an affordable price to the masses. 

I joined the site in April of 2008.

And then I made a really stupid move.

At the end of January in 2013, I quit

Why? Because I was dumb enough to listen to a couple of guys who promised me the world if I went in with them and started a new handicapping site.


All lies and broken promises. I got conned. Even went a few months with no paychecks. Finally I quit right after the NBA playoffs ended in June of 2015. I was once again selling my picks to individual clients until I reached out to Al again and he offered me another shot, which I truly appreciate. 

Then in August of 2017, my contract expired and I was out on my own again. But starting in April of 2018, I'm back because I've found this is a great site to be releasing my plays on and it's my exclusive internet home once more.

Am I still a huge Red Sox fan? You can bet a Curt Schilling bloody sock I am. But I don’t bet based on my emotions.You must be emotionless when you’re a handicapper; no favoritism allowed.That’s the key to my success; my ability to separate myself as a fan versus a handicapper.   

No ridiculous promises from me; I know as well as you do that no one wins everyday in this business. But you watch this page daily. Watch the winners far outpace the losers. Watch the net profit add up. And watch me make us both money because I’m a player, just like you.