This play should NOT surprise you if you’ve been following me for the last 10 days. I told you a week ago today when I backed USC as a two-point home favorite against Washington that I figured the Huskies out. You go against them when they’re on the road (now 0-6 SU and ATS) and you back them at home (13-1 SU).
In their last three home games, the Huskies have crushed Pac-10 foes Stanford (94-61) and Cal (84-69), easily covering in both games, and then they stepped out of conference on Tuesday and whipped Seattle 123-76. (Seattle’s no slouch, either, as the Redhawks scored road wins at Utah and at Oregon State, plus a home win over Fresno State).
At home, Washington State averages 86.9 points, shoots 45.2 percent from the field and has an average rebounding edge of 8.4 boards per game (37.8-29.4). By comparison, in their four Pac-10 road losses, Washington has scored 61, 61, 70 and 51 points (60.8 ppg); shot 76-for-215 from the field, good for 35.3 percent; and has a minus-25 rebounding differential! Digest those stark contrasts – I can’t remember the last time I saw home-road splits like that in college basketball!
Not only that, but look at Washington State’s statistics on the road: The Cougars manage just 65.2 ppg and give up 73.5 ppg, and they get outshot by an eye-popping 47.4 percent to 41.5 percent margin, including 38.8 percent to 32.9 percent from 3-point land!
Now, obviously, this is a rivalry game and that element has to be factored into this game. But really, there’s no comparing the talent level of Washington and Washington State. The Huskies were picked my pretty much everyone to challenge Cal for the Pac-10 title, while the Cougars were pegged for the middle of the pack (at best). And while Washington has had its struggles this year (on the road, of course), the Cougars are just 4-4 SU and 2-6 ATS in league play; in fact, they’ve failed to cover in seven of their last nine games.
If you take away a 65-60 home win over Oregon State (and Oregon State is easily the worst team in the league) and a 67-60 win at USC (the Trojans have no offensive firepower), here are the point totals Washington State has surrendered in its other Pac-10 games: 91, 76, 71, 93, 70 and 74. You can’t play that kind of defense and expect to hang with a Washington squad that lights up the scoreboard at home.
Last year, the Huskies swept the season series from Wazu, winning 68-48 on the road and 67-60 at home, and the talent gap between these rivals was much narrower than it is this year. Lay the chalk and watch Washington roll by at least 15 points!