The L.A. Lakers are going to live to regret not stepping on the Thunder’s collective throat when they had the chance on Sunday. Go back to Game 1: Los Angeles jumped out to a 27-13 first-quarter lead and then ran that to a 17-point advantage early in the second quarter. But instead of keeping their foot on the gas and squashing their young opponent’s confidence, they allowed Oklahoma City to hang around the rest of the way. And even though the Lakers never lost the lead, the fact the Thunder got off to a slow start and saw their best player struggle with his shot all day and yet still kept it competitive the entire second half was almost like a win for Oklahoma City.
No question, after the way Game 1 went down, the Thunder know they can compete with the Lakers. And I don’t care how good of a defender Artest is (and he’s good), there’s no way Durant is going to stink up the joint as bad as he did in Game 1. Durant, the NBA’s regular-season scoring champ, will have his playoff coming-out party tonight, I’m absolutely certain of that.
Back to the Lakers. You may or may not recall that last year, prior to the NBA Finals, they had issues with game-to-game consistency in the postseason. For instance, in their first 16 playoff games last year, they went 7-9 ATS, and during that stretch they cashed in consecutive postseason contests just once.
Consistency has been a big problem for Los Angeles in recent weeks, too. Going back to the All-Star break, the Lakers are just 9-19-1 ATS, and not once during this span have they posted back-to-back ATS wins. More to the point, you have to go back more than two months for the last time L.A. won two straight games by a comfortable margin (at least eight points).
As for the Thunder, it’s true that they’ve hit a bit of a wall at the worst possible time, losing five of seven games since April 6. But look how competitive Oklahoma City was in those five defeats: one-point overtime road loss to the Jazz (and they got hosed by the refs at the end of that one); four-point home loss to the Nuggets; three-point road loss to the Warriors; eight-point road loss to Portland; eight-point road loss to the Lakers. In fact, Oklahoma City has been blown out just once (121-101 loss at Indiana) since March 3, and its last seven losses were by an average of 4.6 ppg.
Also, while the Lakers have covered in consecutive games just once in their last 29 outings, the Thunder have failed to cash in consecutive games just six times this entire season! In fact, going back to last season, Oklahoma City is an incredible 42-17 ATS in its last 59 games after a non-cover, while the Lakers are 0-9 ATS in their last nine after an ATS win. Furthermore, the Thunder are on pointspread runs of 13-6 as a road underdog, 8-2 as an underdog of five to 10½ points (all on the road), and 47-21 after a SU loss, while L.A. is on ATS slides of 3-9-1 at home, 7-16-1 as a favorite and 0-5 when coming off a SU victory.
Finally, I told you guys in this space yesterday that it was only a matter of time before underdogs (and road teams) started to break through from a pointspread perspective in these playoffs. And sure enough, the Bulls and Jazz proved me right (with Utah winning outright, just like I told you they’d likely do).
Do I see Oklahoma City securing a similar outright upset here? I’ll say this: I wouldn’t be at all surprised if it happened, because Durant is going to be supremely motivated to make amends for a shaky Game 1 performance. But we don’t need the Thunder to pull off the shocker. They just have to keep it close, and they’ll do just that from start to finish. Grab the points and watch this one come down to the final possession.
RESULT: Lakers 95, Thunder 92
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CELTICS (-4 over Lakers on June 10)
First off, the zigzag theory is in full effect here, with the Lakers winning Games 1 and 3 convincingly, and Boston taking the middle contest (in Los Angeles). In retrospect, it’s not very surprising as these are two evenly matched squads. Remember, they split two regular-season games, with each winning on the other’s home court by a single point. That means these teams have alternated wins and losses in their five clashes this season.
So even without factoring in anything else, I’d be comfortable coming BIG with the Celtics tonight. The fact Boston is in an absolute must-win situation – there’s no chance the C’s are winning three in a row vs. the Lakers, including Games 6 and 7 in Los Angeles – makes me even MORE confident that Boston is the right side tonight. And even though Kobe and his posse would never in a million years admit it, the Lakers are at a psychological disadvantage tonight because they stole Game 3. It’s only natural for L.A. – especially with head cases like Lamar Odom and Ron Artest – to relax a bit tonight. Not for the entire game, but just stretches here and there, which is exactly what happened in the Game 2 loss at home.
Also, I’d never hint at any Tim Donaghy-like fix, but I am convinced the refs will give the Celtics the benefit of the whistle at every turn tonight. They know an extended series only means more work, right?
Now let’s focus on what the Celtics have done in these playoffs when coming off a loss.
They fell to Miami 101-92 in Game 4 in the opening round, and bounced back with a 96-86 home win as a 7-point favorite to close out the series.
They fell 101-93 in Cleveland in Game 1 of the Eastern Conference semifinals, and bounced back with a 104-86 blowout win as a six-point underdog in Game 2.
They fell 124-95 to the Cavs at home in the very next game (as a one-point chalk), and bounced back with a 97-87 win as a 1½-point home underdog in the next game.
They fell 96-92 in overtime in Game 4 against Orlando in the Eastern Conference semifinals, then went to Orlando for Game 5 and were victimized by horrendous officiating in a 113-92 loss. However, they came right back and put the Magic away with a 96-84 rout as a 3 ½-point home favorite in Game 6.
Finally, they fell 102-89 at Los Angeles in Game 1 of this series, only to rebound with a 103-94 win as a six-point pup on Sunday.
That puts Boston at 5-1 SU and ATS when coming off a loss in these playoffs, and all five wins were very easy (and as noted above, the one loss was an officiating disgrace!).
Finally, the Lakers have won consecutive road games just once in these playoffs (Games 3 and 4 of a sweep of Utah a month ago). Take away the Jazz series, and L.A. is just 3-5 SU and ATS as a visitor in the postseason.
Bottom line: The Celtics are winning this game tonight, and if history is any indication – their five previous playoff wins when coming off a defeat were by an average of 11.8 ppg – it’s not going to be close at all.
Your 60 Dime NBA Winner #2 in a Row is the Celtics, and we’ll call for a 103-88 final.
RESULT: Celtics 96, Lakers 89